By 2022, 60 per cent of global population will be Internet users: Cisco

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By 2022, more IP traffic will cross global networks than in all prior ‘Internet years’ combined up to the end of 2016, said an internet trafficreport by Cisco released yesterday.

The Internet, as we all know it by now, is made up of thousands of global public & private networks. Since it came to life in 1984, over 4.7 zettabytes of IP traffic have flowed across it. Cisco says that’s the same as all the movies ever made crossing global IP networks in less than a minute.

Yet the new Visual Networking Index (VNI) by Cisco now says this is but only the beginning.Meaning, brace yourselves, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the Internet started.

Where will that traffic come from?

The Cisco report says by 2022, 60% of the global population will be Internet users, which means over 28 billion devices & connections will be Online. And video will make up 82% of all IP traffic.

“The size and complexity of the internet continues to grow in ways that many could not have imagined. Since we first started the VNI Forecast in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, amassing a 36 percent CAGR with more people, devices and applications accessing IP networks,” said Jonathan Davidson, senior Vice President & General Manager, Service Provider Business, Cisco, in a press statement. “Global service providers are focused on transforming their networks to better manage and route traffic, while delivering premium experiences. Our ongoing research helps us gain and share valuable insights into technology and architectural transitions our customers must make to succeed.”

Here are some key predictions for 2022

From 2017 to 2022, Cisco predicts:

1. Global IP traffic will more than triple
   
   • Global IP traffic is expected to reach 396 exabytes per month by 2022, up from 122 exabytes per month in 2017. That’s 4.8 zettabytes of traffic per year by 2022.
   • By 2022, the busiest hour of Internet traffic will be 6 times more active than the average. Busy hour Internet traffic will grow by nearly five times (37% CAGR) from 2017 to 2022, reaching 7.2 petabytes¹ per second by 2022. In comparison, average Internet traffic will grow by nearly 4 times (30 percent CAGR) over the same period to reach 1 petabyte by 2022.(A petabyte is equal to 1,000 terabytes or one million gigabytes.)
2.  Global networked devices & connections will reach 28.5 billion
   • By 2022, there will be 28.5 billion fixed & mobile personal devices and connections, up from 18 billion in 2017—or 3.6 networked devices/connections per person, from 2.4 per person.
     More than half of all devices & connections will be machine-to-machine by 2022, up from 34% in 2017. That’s 14.6 billion connections from smart speakers, fixtures, devices & everything else, up from 6.1 billion.
3. Global broadband, WiFi & mobile speeds will double or more
   • Average global fixed broadband speeds will nearly double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps.
   • Average global WiFi connection speeds will more than double from 24.4 Mbps to 54.0 Mbps.
     Average global mobile connection speeds will more than triple from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps.
4. Video, gaming and multimedia will make up more than 85% of all traffic
   • IP video traffic will quadruple by 2022. As a result, it will make up an even larger percentage of total IP traffic than before—up to 82% from 75%.
   • Gaming traffic is expected to grow nine-fold from 2017 to 2022. It will represent 4% of overall IP traffic in 2022.
   • Virtual & augmented reality traffic will skyrocket as more consumers & businesses use the technologies. By 2022, virtual and augmented reality traffic will reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.

Regional IP traffic growth details (2017 – 2022)

• APAC: 173 exabytes/month by 2022, 32% CAGR, 4-times growth
• North America: 108 exabytes/month by 2022, 21% CAGR, 3-times growth
• Western Europe: 50 exabytes/month 2022, 22% CAGR, 3-times growth
• Central & Eastern Europe: 25 exabytes/month by 2022, 26% CAGR, 3-times growth
• Middle East and Africa: 21 exabytes/month by 2022, 41% CAGR, 6-times growth
• Latin America: 19 exabytes/month by 2022, 21% CAGR, 3-times growth