San Jose, California, Feb. 4, 2016: By 2020, there will be 5.5 billion mobile users, representing 70 per cent of the global population, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2015 to 2020).
The reason for this spurt? The adoption of mobile devices, increased mobile coverage, and demand for mobile content would drive user growth two times faster than the global population over the next five years. This surge of mobile users, smart devices, mobile video and 4G networks would increase mobile data traffic eight-fold over the next five years, according to the survey.
Smart mobile devices and connections were projected to represent 72 per cent of total mobile devices and connections by 2020—up from 36 per cent in 2015. Smart devices were expected to generate 98 per cent of mobile data traffic by 2020.
From an individual device perspective, smartphones were dominating mobile traffic. They would account for 81 per cent of total mobile traffic by 2020—up from 76 per cent in 2015. The proliferation of mobile phones, including “phablets” (a hybrid blend of smartphone and tablet features), was increasing so rapidly that more people would have mobile phones (5.4 billion) than electricity (5.3 billion), running water (3.5 billion) and cars (2.8 billion) by 2020.
Mobile video will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application, according to the survey. Consumer and business users’ demand for higher video resolution, more bandwidth, and processing speed would led to an increase in the use of 4G connected devices. 4G connectivity share was projected to surpass 2G by 2018 and 3G by 2020. 4G will represent more than 70 per cent of all mobile traffic, and 4G connections will generate nearly six times more traffic per month than non-4G connections by 2020.
“With the ever-increasing billions of people and things that are being connected, mobility is the predominant medium that’s enabling today’s global digitization transformation,” said Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Marketing, Cisco. “Future mobile innovations in cellular, such as 5G, and WiFi solutions will be needed to further address new scale requirements, security concerns, and user demands. IoT advancements will continue to fuel tangible benefits for people, businesses, and societies.”
Mobile Data Traffic Projections and Trends:
· By 2020:
o Global mobile data traffic will reach 30.6 exabytes per month—up from 3.7 exabytes in 2015.
o Annual global mobile data traffic will reach 366.8 exabytes—up from 44.2 exabytes in 2015.
· The forecast annual run rate of 366.8 exabytes of mobile data traffic for 2020 is equivalent to:
o 120X more than all global mobile traffic generated just 10 years ago in 2010.
o 81 trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)—28 daily images per person on earth for a year.
o 7 trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)—more than 2.5 daily video clips per person on earth for a year.
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Connections and Wearable Devices Continue to Rise
· By 2020, M2M connections will represent 26.4 per cent of mobile-connected devices—up from 7.7 per cent in 2015.
· By 2020, M2M connections will generate 6.7 per cent of total mobile traffic—up from 2.7 per cent in 2015.
· Global wearables will grow six-fold from 2015 to 2020.
· By 2020, there will be more than 600 million wearable devices in use, up from nearly 97 million in 2015.
Regional Mobile Data Traffic Growth Rates (2015–2020)
1. The Middle East and Africa (15-fold growth)
2. Asia-Pacific (9-fold growth)
3. Central and Eastern Europe (8-fold growth)
4. Latin America (8-fold growth)
5. Western Europe (6-fold growth)
6. North America (6-fold growth)
Image Credit: Cisco